The State of Kerala was hit by Covid-19 as early as January 3rd week when we had students from Wuhan visiting the state. Thus, the state machinery has been on high alert.
Since that incident, the state of Kerala has come a long way through solid learnings.
We have identified three major risk factors for Kerala
a. Presence of Large Number of International Tourists and Middle East b. Large mobility of non resident Keralites coming back c. Large Geriatric population with Non Communicable diseases (including diabetics) The State Government has tracked down passengers who have travelled to Kerala from various airlines by collecting passenger manifest data from Immigration Department. Separately, the state has also created a Panchayat wise list of people above 75 years and collected data on Cancer Patients and patients with non communicable diseases. The state aims to protect the most vulnerable population first along with creating a mechanism to balance the anticipated load on the healthcare systems. This work is in full swing.
1.It is important to understand the numbers in this war so that every citizen can estimate the point at which our health care systems will be breached by the corona virus.
2. Kerala has 330 Lakh people of which 76% (or 251 Lakh people) are under 50 age group. 22% of our total population or 72 Lakh people are between 50-70 years old and ~1.6% or 5,34,600 people are above 80 years old.
People under 50 age group
People in 50-80 age group
People in above 80 age group
2. Our medical team estimates that upto 50% of Kerala (165 Lakh) people will get a corona fever. These are estimates and we are preparing for a worst case situation that may or may not happen. 3. Out of this 165 lakh people, 81% (133 Lakhs) will be simple mild cases that doesn't require hospitalisation.
4.These people will go to the nearest Corona Care Center first where they can be treated for mild illnesses. 5. 14% (23 Lakhs) people will have moderate infections which will require hospital admissions for around 8-14 days. As we have only 37,021 beds, we need ensure that we dont overload the healthcare system and get admitted at the Corona Care Center first. 6. 5% (8.25 Lakh) people will fall critically ill and will need hospitalisation at the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). We are still trying to find the exact number of ICU beds in the state.
7. We will need a State wide Ambulance Network which maps to nearest hospital which has the ICU/Ventilator bed capacity that is free.
8. It is obvious that every citizen has to ensure his own safety first by not catching the virus and slow down the spread so that at any given point in time, we are always below the total healthcare capacity.
We have now gathered preliminary requirements for creating a model CCC and plan to test this is one school to be created as the Model Corona Care Center and test the full physical facility + software system. 8. Once we have a model in place that is working, we can then quickly scale it to 1000's of educational institutions and ensure that we increase the healthcare capacity at war footing and prevent an overload of our healthcare system.
1. Now that we have identified the most vulnerable population and have setup centers to prevent overcapacity of the healthcare system, we need to educate the general public on only one thing - What should I do if i get fever
2. These Health Protocols can be seen at https://health.coronasafe.network/
3. We are setting up learning modules and quizzes so that 100% of the citizens living know exactly what to do if they get fever thus aligning the State Strategy with individual citizen action.
The human processes are coded into the software and just like how Android or IOS is designed to take a user through a particular flow, the CoronaSafe Network co-ordinates actions of multiple stakeholders into one single flow which is guided at the Chief Ministers Office and executed decentralised on the ground.
This entire system with a suite of over 25 applications continuously developed by a team of 100+ volunteer software engineers in known as the Corona Safe Network. CoronaSafe Network and our knowledge of processes is open-source for any other state or nation wishing to replicate the Kerala Model.
C. Current Go-Live Status : https://coronasafe.network/ is planned to go-live on 28st March 2020.
(priority for those who have had Corona fever and has killed the virus by themselves as they are now immune.)
We dont know the exact time estimate for this and estimates range from 6 months - 18 months.
We estimate that even if you were 80 years old, 850 of us out of 1000 would defeat the virus on our own. Only 5,34,000 people are above 80 but we have a duty to protect them as well.
If you are between 50-70 years, 960 out 1000 people, would defeat the virus on their own.
If you are under 50, 997 people out of 1000 will kill Corona on their own without a vaccine.
It is easy to understand that the individual chances that each one of dies in the battle with corona virus is very small.
But when 165 lakh people get a fever that possibly came from an animal in China, then we have a load management problem as our state healthcare system has only 37,021 beds.
Thus, during this period of time of war against the virus, each one of us has to ensure that we come out of this safely and keep our families, especially the older generation of people above 50 in Kerala also safe.
It is our duty to follow the Corona protocols set by the Indian Air Force which are water tight and prevents the virus from spreading fast if everyone follows the same set of protocols.
These protocols are non-classified for civilian use.